Welcome to Calcio Square, an email newsletter dedicated to Serie A and Italian football. I publish essays every Monday and Thursday. If you know someone who'd enjoy the newsletter, please ask them to sign up. You can also email me with suggestions at hello@calciosquare.com.

Now, onto today's issue.

Atalanta took the field in Florence on Sunday with barely an ounce of the energy that made them appointment viewing in Serie A over the last few years. They lost second balls, mistimed challenges, and barely created meaningful chances. Atalanta's defense, which usually marches in unison, was all over the place. Fiorentina feasted on Atalanta the way Atalanta have dined on so many opponents, and they didn't have to do anything particularly special. Moise Kean's winning goal came off one of several turnovers Atalanta committed throughout the game.

Head coach Gian Piero Gasperini wasn't on the touchline to correct any mistakes. He was banned for insulting a referee before the international break. He's been living on the edge for some time and has already suggested his near-decade run at the club is coming to an end. The games and stats have trended as you'd expect: Atalanta haven't won back-to-back Serie A games in more than three months and are now more likely to drop out of the top four than they are to win the title. They're nine points behind league leaders Inter and just three from fifth. That's after being handed a number of lifelines by rivals who haven't been convincing themselves.

Atalanta were in first place not long ago and in a phenomenal position to challenge for a first-ever Scudetto. They rattled off 11 wins in a row between October and December and entered the new year with a relatively healthy squad. You could argue Gasperini had never had a group so deep in his career. He even had the luxury of benching the league's top scorer, Mateo Retegui, whenever he felt the need to make a tactical tweak. Imagine beating Napoli away 3-0 with Retegui on the bench for most of the game.

They could not have been more of a team. No individual was above the whole. But the whole apparatus has shut down. The gears aren't working together. Charles De Ketelaere hasn't scored in two months. Raoul Bellanova doesn't cut in from the right flank with the same impact. Marten de Roon can't lock down the middle of the field by himself. Mario Pasalic loses the ball in key areas and doesn't drive the play forward. Ademola Lookman is as isolated on the field as he seems to be by his coach. What does Daniel Maldini do exactly? He seems a bit lost right now.

None of it's working as intended. And so they now run the risk of falling completely out of Champions League contention. Four of their last eight games of the season are against Lazio, Bologna, AC Milan, and Roma. None of them have given up on fourth place.

Losing out on a first Serie A title is, of course, a huge disappointment, especially when you consider the momentum they had and squad they had assembled. Atalanta had never spent more on transfer fees than the estimated €125 million they committed over the last two windows. Atalanta set serious expectations but couldn't handle them the one season they had them. They entered the season as Europa League champions but could end it without a trophy or a ticket to the Champions League. It changes a lot. But what could happen next could change them even more.

What if Gasperini leaves and finds it difficult to perform the same miracles outside of Atalanta's cocoon? What if Atalanta struggle to find a coach who can squeeze everything out of a team of misfits? Players who have left Atalanta have regressed hard to the mean. Gasperini has been coaching for 22 years and never had any kind of success outside of provincial clubs. He may need Atalanta just as much as they need him.

So maybe they should look past these last few months and evaluate their achievements as a whole before making a decision. Because a bad reaction to a bad season could make things so much worse.