Welcome to Calcio Square, an email newsletter dedicated to Serie A and Italian football. Every Thursday, I dedicate my entire post to one specific theme or trend. In today's issue, I estimate the confidence levels of each title contender.
I've included all teams within 10 points of Serie A leaders Napoli, dropping as far down to seventh-placed AC Milan.
Each team's confidence level is rated out of 10 and based on recent form, strength of schedule, historical performance, and injury concerns.
1. Napoli
Now that they're out of the Coppa Italia, Napoli can focus all of their energy on winning Serie A for a fourth time. Antonio Conte doesn't have to worry about rotation — a weakness of his at the best of times — or the potential for overload. With wins over Milan and Roma, a loss to Atalanta, and a draw away to Inter, Napoli have come through one of toughest stretches of their schedule relatively unscathed. They have a chance to build upon their lead with matches to come against bottom feeders Udinese, Genoa, and Venezia. Conte has virtually everyone available, too.
Confidence level: 8/10
2. Atalanta
Gian Piero Gasperini has never had as good a chance of winning Serie A as he does now. His team has won eight Serie A games in a row by a combined score of 25-4, feasting on both relegation fodder and the remains of their title rivals. Atalanta have significant depth: Lazar Samardzic, Nicolo Zaniolo, Juan Cuadrado, and Marco Brescianini would all start elsewhere but are merely relief options for Gasperini. He also has Giorgio Scalvini raring to go after his speedy return from injury. With successive games in March and April against seven of the top eight teams, Atalanta can rack up the points now and get to the business end feeling sure about their chances.
Confidence level: 9/10
3. Inter
Inter have found strength in the collective. They're a true team, and head coach Simone Inzaghi has used all parts of it to get through these first few months. He can rotate heavily in the Champions League and still get results. And after shipping a ton of goals to start the season, Inter have tidied things up at the back, recording five clean sheets in their last six matches across all competitions. With 13 different players on the scoresheet through 13 Serie A fixtures, Inter don't even have to rely on Lautaro Martinez to win them points.
Confidence level: 8/10
4. Fiorentina
Not even the most optimistic Fiorentina fan would've expected this team of relative newcomers to mount a title challenge. Most still would settle for Champions League qualification. But they made a statement in October and November, trouncing opponents, including Roma, while winning seven games in a row. David De Gea has produced stunning saves — his 82.5% save percentage is the second-highest in the league — and forward Moise Kean is posting career numbers. But it's fair to ask how long they can keep up this pace. Kean has already reached a single-season high in Serie A starts with 12. How many more games can he win? Luckily, Fiorentina's remaining schedule is balanced.
Confidence level: 7/10
5. Lazio
Parma shook up Lazio when no one else could. It was the first time all season Lazio conceded three goals in a game. The defeat also followed a disappointing goalless draw with Ludogorets in the Europa League. While Lazio rebounded with a win over Napoli's B team in the Coppa Italia on Thursday, they don't have much more room for error. They'll face a more robust Napoli side Sunday in Naples and finish off the year against Ajax, Inter, and Atalanta. Lazio have some interesting pieces, but many of them are untested in title races. Can Arsenal loanee Nuno Taveres build on his Serie A-leading eight assists? Will Taty Castellanos score 10 Serie A goals in a season for the first time? Can 37-year-old Pedro continue to score off the bench? These questions are tough to answer.
Confidence level: 6/10
6. Juventus
Juventus were feeling pretty good about themselves earlier in the season. They were in second place after six games and showing promise under new head Thiago Motta. Though they remain without a loss in Serie A, they don't exactly win or score much. Dusan Vlahovic has been in and out of the lineup, and a number of young players, including Kenan Yildiz, have had to shoulder an increasing burden. Motta never seems to have a fully fit lineup, and his game plan has subsequently erred on the side of caution. Unless Juventus can find more of a balance, they won't have much hope of beating their rivals to the title.
Confidence level: 5/10
7. AC Milan
It's tough to predict where Milan will end up this season. How can anyone judge a team that beats Real Madrid one day and draws Cagliari the next? Milan have enough firepower to blow teams away, but it's of little use when they concede more goals than they can score. Head coach Paulo Fonseca has tried a little too hard to find a solution at the back, fielding six different center-back combinations in 13 Serie A games. Rafael Leao and Theo Hernandez haven't produced consistently enough to drum up optimism, and while Tijjani Reijnders' recent goal-scoring form is encouraging, there's a tactical imbalance here that Milan have to solve first.
Confidence level: 4/10
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