Welcome to Calcio Square, an email newsletter dedicated to Serie A and Italian football. Every Thursday, I dedicate my entire post to one specific theme or trend.

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Now, onto today's issue.

It was only a month ago that I lavished praise on Italian teams for their success in European competition. "Serie A thrives in Europe," read the title of the Jan. 23 edition of my newsletter, which now reads like a woefully out-of-touch editorial given the results of the last few days.

But I struggle to dismiss so quickly the fact that Serie A has had a European finalist in each of the last three seasons. Despite AC Milan, Atalanta, and Juventus all being eliminated from the Champions League in a crushing blow to the country's UEFA coefficient — which will likely result in the loss of a fifth qualification berth — it could yet provide another finalist this season.

Four of Serie A's eight European participants remain in contention, with Inter in the Champions League round of 16, Roma and Lazio in the Europa League knockout stage, and Fiorentina flying the flag in the Conference League. Bologna were the only Serie A side to drop out of the league phase, and it's hard to hold that against them. They lost their head coach and three of their best players ahead of their first-ever Champions League appearance. Of course they were going to struggle.

The number of teams could drop to three if Roma and Lazio draw each other in the round of 16 or later. But that's the literal luck of the draw. Had Juventus and Milan advanced, one of them would've come up against Inter and limited Serie A's potential quarterfinal showing.

That's one reason European results don't always reveal the robustness of a particular league. Everyone is at the mercy of the draw, and one bad game or call could ruin your chances.

You could argue Milan would've qualified for the round of 16 if Theo Hernandez hadn't been sent off early in the second half of their playoff second leg against Feyenoord. The Rossoneri were leading 12-2 in shots before Hernandez received a second yellow card for diving. Momentum was going in one direction.

Atalanta also suffered from a peculiar episode. Club Brugge's winning goal in the first leg of their Champions League playoff came off a penalty the referee harshly awarded for an ever-so-slight hand to the face. Atalanta lost their cool after that and ended up conceding another three goals at home in an eventual 5-2 loss on aggregate. But they've been struggling with injuries and a loss of form. Brugge just caught them at the right time.

Juventus were in position to advance when Timothy Weah scored the equalizer in their playoff second leg against PSV Eindhoven but shipped another two goals en route to a 4-3 aggregate defeat. They couldn't possibly handle all the pressure at the back, with Bremer, Pierre Kalulu, and Juan Cabal still out injured. Renato Veiga, one of Juventus' emergency center-back signings, is now set to miss a few games himself.

I think these three teams were eliminated because of a lack of composure from their players. I see it as less of an institutional failure and more of a performance issue. You can blame Serie A's noncompetitive TV rights deal and marketing mishaps for capping the flow of money to clubs — money they could otherwise use to improve their rosters with players who can perform at the highest level — but the teams that fell still spent a lot of money this season. Circumstance had a lot to do with it. Player recruitment, too.

What I may have underestimated before is just how much Italian teams struggle to defend. In a bid to get with the times, many of these teams have begun to play a transition game that calls for high defensive lines, pressing, and riskier passes. Milan and Atalanta play aggressively but aren't resistant to the press. Sometimes they get blown out.

Juventus tend to play much deeper. The problem is that they lose too many duels to defend leads. The more pressure they invite, the more likely they are to lose. That's as much a problem with Thiago Motta's tactics as it is a consequence of their injury crisis. They'd defend a lot better with Bremer and Kalulu in the side. But then maybe they should have better backups.

It's obvious Serie A can do better in the Champions League — especially when they come up against teams with far fewer resources. Carlo Garganese, who co-hosts The Italian Football Podcast, tells us that Inter have only passed the round of 16 once in 14 years, that Milan have only done it once in 13 years, and that Juventus haven't cleared that hurdle since 2019. That's a real problem and one they've thrown money at.

But I don't believe it's fair to belittle Serie A's achievements in the Europa League and Conference League. I have hard time downplaying Atalanta's 3-0 win over previously undefeated Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League final, just as I have hard time minimizing Fiorentina's back-to-back appearances in the Conference League final. Atalanta beat Liverpool to get to the final. Much bigger teams like Ajax and Aston Villa fell in the Conference League. It's not easy.

Calcio wasn't necessarily back before, but it isn't exactly gone now.